Here is one detailed analysis, published on 28 March 2017, of the voter-data from the 2016 Clinton-v-Trump Presidential contest.
Here is another, published on 1 May 2017, which goes even deeper.
Both conclude the same thing: Trump won mainly because of people who had voted for Obama in 2012, voting for Trump in 2016.
Thus, the two separate most-recent and most-detailed studies of the data regarding the 2016 election, indicate exactly the same main reason why Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump: it isn’t “turnout” (as the Democratic Party propaganda has been claiming to have been the chief reason) but instead it is voters who had voted for Obama against Romney in 2012, voting for Trump against Hillary in 2016 — voters who were so disappointed in the (as it turned out) Romneyish Obama, and considered Hillary to embody Obama’s deceits and bad policies (such as her NAFTA and his TPP and Wall Street bailouts) even more than Obama embodied those deceits and bad policies. She was viewed in the worst way, by these voters — the voters who (as both studies show) decided the election.
Of course, both studies also do show some advantage that Trump had in voter-enthusiasm or “turnout,” but both find that that explanation constituted the lesser of the two factors producing Trump’s victory; and, furthermore, part of the reason for Hillary’s deficiency in turnout consisted of the Obama-voters in 2012 who “stayed home” on Election Day, or who even voted for Trump. So: a portion of Hillary’s “turnout” problem was her unacceptability among some of these disenchanted Obama-voters.
In other words: the key voters in 2016 were actually lifelong Democrats who saw their Party under Hillary as having become even worse than the Republican Party was under Trump.
I happen to have been one of those voters, which is why I left the Democratic Party in 2016. I had never voted for a Republican since I first voted, and now that I see the real Donald Trump as being merely a John-Birchite Republican who lied to support some progressive policies so as to get votes from some progressives like I am and then reversed himself once he had won, I won’t vote for either Party unless the Democratic Party has first renounced and repudiated both the Clintons and the Obamas as liars and as traitors to the Democratic Party’s equalitarian FDR progressive traditions — as people who should be “run out of town on a rail”, rejected and condemned by a reconstituted Democratic Party that’s reformed from the ground up, back again into the great populist-progressive tradition upon which this nation was actually founded — a political equality of rights (and that tradition was pinnacled by the progressive populist Abraham Lincoln after the Democratic Party itself had abandoned it in the 1850s, but his new Republican Party got taken over by the new aristocracy immediately when Lincoln got assassinated in 1865). Upon that political equality of rights was to be built an influence elite of natural talents, not of any inherited money whatsoever. True equality of economic opportunity for all was the founders’ clear goal, and has now been defeated by the new aristocracy.
If the Democratic Party won’t repudiate the Bill Clinton DLC repudiation of FDR and termination of FDR’s Glass-Steagall Act, and the “New Democrats” other slimy ‘Democratic’ servantage to the aristocracy (such as Barack Obama led, after Bill Clinton did), then a new Party is necessary, which will aim to replace the Democratic Party, because two aristocratically controlled Parties constituting America’s body-politic is just a dictatorship by the aristocracy against the public; it’s no authentic democracy at all. A dictatorship is not acceptable to any honorable American, nor to the original intent of the U.S. Constitution, which repudiated (instead of admired) the aristocracy.
Today’s America is just treachery which honors the aristocracy, not anything that the Founders sought to establish — it’s what they had sought to avoid. That’s today’s America.
Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.