Why We’re Fragmenting: The Status Quo Is Disintegrating

I confess to being amused by the mainstream media’s implicit view that everything would be peachy if only Trump wasn’t president. Memo to MSM: the nation is fragmenting for reasons that have nothing to do with who’s president, or indeed, which party is the majority in Congress, who sits on the Supreme Court, or any other facet of governance.

The nation is fracturing and fragmenting because the Status Quo is failing the majority of the citizenry. The protected few are reaping all the benefits of the Status Quo, at the expense of the unprotected many.

As I have outlined many times, this unsustainable asymmetry is the only possible outcome of our socio-economic system, which is dominated by these forces:

1. Globalization–free flow of capital, labor arbitrage

2. Nearly free money from central banks for financiers and corporations

3. Pay-to-play “democracy”

4. State protected cartels that privatize gains and socialize losses

5. A system stripped of self-correcting feedback and accountability

Once you understand the inputs and structure, you realize there is no other possible output other than unsustainably expanding debt and wealth/income inequality. Policy tweaks cannot change the output; all they do is provide an illusion of reform that serves the need of those at the top to obscure the systemic injustices and unsustainability of the extractive, exploitive, predatory, parasitic system that’s enriching them.

What do people do when centralized systems fail to deliver what was promised? They fragment into smaller “tribes” and find fewer reasons to cooperate in centralized systems. As historian-economist Peter Turchin explained in his 2016 book Ages of Discord, human history manifests cycles of social disintegration and integration in which the impulse to cooperate in large social structures waxes and wanes.

Turchin identified 25-year cycles that combine into roughly 50-year cycles, comparable (though not identical with) Kondratieff’s proposed economic cycles.

These 50-year cycles are part of longer 150 to 200-year cycles that move from cooperation through an age of discord and disintegration to a new era of cooperation.

This work draws upon his previous books, including War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires, which I referenced in Following in Ancient Rome’s Footsteps: Moral Decay, Rising Wealth Inequality (September 30, 2015) and The Lesson of Empires: Once Privilege Limits Social Mobility, Collapse Is Inevitable (April 18, 2016).

These long cycles parallel the cyclical analysis of David Hackett Fischer, whose masterwork The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History I’ve referenced many times over the years, most recently in We’ve Entered an Era of Rising Instability and Uncertainty (July 18, 2016).

Turchin’s model identifies three primary forces in these cycles:

1. An over-supply of labor that suppresses real (inflation-adjusted) wages

2. An overproduction of essentially parasitic Elites

3. A deterioration in central state finances (over-indebtedness, decline in tax revenues, increase in state dependents, fiscal burdens of war, etc.)

These combine to influence the social order, which is characterized in eras of discord by declining loyalty to self-serving special interests (disintegration) and in eras of cooperation by a willingness to compromise for the good of the entire society (integration).

As I have often explained, centralization is now a disruptive drag rather than a benefit. Centralization provided widespread gains in efficiencies in its boost phase, but now that it is sliding down the S-curve, it only benefits the few at the expense of the many.

The returns on centralization have diminished to less than zero: centralization’s primary outputs are now corruption, lack of accountability, cronyism, complexity moats and bureaucratic thickets that obscure the self-serving nature of centralized power.

State of Denial: The Economy No Longer Works As It Did in the Past (May 16, 2017)

The structural failure of our political-economic system cannot be remedied by electing a new president or swapping failed political parties. The system is disintegrating, and slapping a “reformist” coat of paint over the dryrot cannot renew the structural timbers that have rotted to their very core.

Identifying cycles can be a parlor game, but there is no denying that we’re deep into a disintegrative phase that will probably come to a head between 2021 and 2029.

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  • Zartan

    Today, I am going to give a historical/theological lesson; I cannot allow 2,000 years of theology to go so badly misunderstood.

    Title: Driving Wall Street out of the Temple:

    Most Americans claim to be Christian, and Therefore, I cannot play the Atheist because the numbers are against me. You all think JESUS told you to be “peaceful and non-violent,” because the powers ( banker governments) that have enslaved you have blasphemed Gods word in its teaching. Here are the only two examples I need to help all understand.

    Matthew 21:12:
    1. Upon arriving at the Temple, Jesus Drove out ( with a whip) the Money Changers and Turned over their Tables. ( Think about WALL STREET). This was a Violent Act.


    Matthew 22:20-22:

    2. Jesus was asked about paying Tax and a coin was held up? Jesus Replied, ” Render unto Caesar what belongs to Caesar and God what belongs to God.” Jesus knew that “NOTHING BELONGS TO CAESAR.” Second, a Coin with a disembodied head ( the one of Caesar shown to Jesus) was a Call for OPEN Rebellion. A coin is a head on a silver platter: Jesus told the people to Rebel.


    He commanded his Apostles to “gather Swords” and Posted Guard in the Garden, awaiting the people for Rebellion, but Rome came first, because He was betrayed. Still … The violence did not stop … Peter, took the ear of the high priests servant.

    Jesus only put it back because his mission was to go to the cross. However, the instructions were for a future Generation, Our Generation!

    The Revelation of Jesus`s Return is not Peaceful.

    Now, we have Jesus, “above” coding and choreographing instructions for future generations when the Church would be Strong, Today! Jesus was Violent and Told his Apostles to Gather Swords. Jesus said, ” Give Caesar what is due Caesar” ( death: head on a platter: coin) because that is what the person in the crowd propositioned Jesus with in question about TAX.

    There are enough Christians in America to Stop “all that is coming” and change the World for GOOD, simply, by protesting on Wall Street and Demanding Change. Government has no choice but to OBEY.

    You have the Power, America, and remember, you will also be Judged for Not USING your POWER. Think about your Constitution and all the rights you were given? Coincidence? No … It was all Divinely Inspired to make it easy for you. There will be no excuses.

    And, in case, you want to wait for JESUS … Read Revelation 14, because Nuclear War Comes First.

    Your Choice, America, you can do it the easy way, or God will do it the Hard Way.

  • Zartan

    Interesting, my post disappeared. I will post it again. I have amazing levels of patients!

    Today, I am going to give a History/Theology lesson, because for 2,000 years the lessons have been blasphemed by the Ruling Classes “and their domination of everything,” including scripture! They made Jesus into their Recruiter for Peaceful Eternal Slavery to Mammon! Amazing!


    Jesus drove the money changers out of the Temple “with a whip” turning over their tables. This was a violent act and does not echo peace and pacifism. To the Contrary, if you read the whole BOOK, “Jesus” obviously, ( if He is God or the Son) uses violence when appropriate! He even Sacked Jerusalem! Where did this silly peaceful pacifism come from, anyway?


    A Protester held up a Coin (a disembodied Caesars Head on Silver Platter),which was the code for Rebellion in those days and asked, ” What about Tax?” Jesus Responded, ( Drawing attention to the image on the coin) give “Caesar what belongs to Caesar and God what belongs to God.” Jesus knew nothing belongs to Caesar!

    Jesus told the people to Rebel.


    The Above is verified by the fact that Jesus commanded his apostles to gather swords, and posted guard in the Garden, awaiting the people. However, when the Romans showed up, because Jesus was betrayed, Peter Cut the Ear of A High Priests Servant! Now, that is Serious Violence … People!

    Simply, the stories in the bible were “coded and choreographed” by JESUS as future instructions for stronger Generations. Today, there are almost 1-billion Christians. Today, Christians can take total control of Wall Street and Government(s) with ease. Take a look at your Constitution and all the rights given to you. These were not coincidences, but planned by “Divine Inspiration” to make it easy for you. If you do nothing, America, than you will be guilty before the Creator of Voluntarily Paying Tax to the Beast. Truthfully, I would rather be Lucifer than You in that situation. Think of all the Evil you will be accountable for because you did nothing! Doing nothing and being Patriotic … Well, recall the First Commandment? You do not pledge to anything but GOD. Patriots are Doomed, unless they Repent!

    Jesus was Violent, God will be even more, VIOLENT, simply, the non-violence “nonsense” was taught to you by your Masters; because only slaves are forbidden to act violent. Freedom relies upon a Strong Militia, Rights to Bear Arms … Citizens Arrest (includes use of Force) and it all means nothing if these rights are never used.

    Want to wait for JESUS … well, read Revelation 14, because Nuclear War comes first, and only because YOU, America, did not ACT!

  • LeseMajeste

    Hugely aided and abetted by the Zionist 9/11 False Flag that got Americans so scared and fearful, that they worried about being murdered by some ‘raghead’ instead of keeping an eye on DC and Wall Street, which allowed those two criminal outfits to steal trillions of wealth thru stock market schemes, that was protected by DC, who would give the perps a slap on the wrist when caught.

    Now that the ‘jihadist’ threat doesn’t pack the same punch, the same DC/Wall Street terrorists are plying us with phony stories about a Russian started nuclear war, so we’ll keep being so scared we can’t think straight and allow those thieves to loot the rest of our money.