A Disintegrative Winter: The Debt and Anti-Status Quo Super-Cycle Has Turned

How would you describe the social mood of the nation and world? Would anti-Establishment, anti-status quo, and anti-globalization be a good start? How about choking on fast-rising debt? Would stagnant growth, stagnant wages be a fair description? Or how about rising wealth/income inequality? Wouldn’t rising disunity and political polarization be accurate?

These are all characteristics of the long-wave social-economic cycle that is entering the disintegrative (winter) phase. Souring social mood, loss of purchasing power, stagnating wages, rising inequality, devaluing currencies, rising debt, political polarization and elite disunity are all manifestations of this phase.

I have covered the cyclical nature of human social orders many times, most recently in We’ve Entered an Era of Rising Instability and Uncertainty (July 18, 2016)

Now Is the Winter of our Discontent: Our Era of Rising Discord (November 16, 2016)

How The Seeds Of Revolution Take Root: the Middle Class Loses Upward Mobility(February 26, 2016)

Historians David Hackett Fischer (The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History) and Peter Turchin (Ages of Discord) have assembled data and models for these long-term cycles.

Based on the history painstakingly assembled by Fischer and Turchin we can anticipate:

— Ever higher prices for what I call the FEW Essentials: food, energy and water.

— Ever larger government deficits which end in bankruptcy/repudiation of debts/new issue of currency.

— Rising property/violent crime and illegitimacy.

— Rising interest rates (until very recently this was considered “impossible”).

— Rising income inequality in favor of capital over labor.

— Continued debasement of the currency.

— Rising volatility of prices.

— Rising political unrest and turmoil (see “Revolution”).

With this list of manifestations in hand, we can practically write the headlines for 2017-2025 in advance.

Gordon Long and discuss these overlapping/ reinforcing social, political and economic cycles in a new video Cycles: Anti-Globalization and the Debt Super-Cycle. Here is a chart from the program that displays the rise of political polarization:

As for rising wealth/income inequality, the apex controls the money and thus the power:

Gordon and I also discuss the many different cyclical analyses that are now overlapping. Cyclical analyses based on demographics, socionomics, debt, wages and prices are all issuing the same conclusion: we’re in the Disintegrative Winter phase of a multi-decade socio-economic cycle.

Here’s our discussion of Cycles: Anti-Globalization and the Debt Super Cycle (30 minutes):

Gordon’s abstract of the program: Cycles and the End of the Debt Super-Cycle

For what it’s worth, my copy editor reckons Inequality and the Collapse of Privilege($3.95 Kindle ebook, $8.95 print edition) is my best book. It is, if nothing else, highly relevant to today’s economic/social schisms.

Join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

Check out both of my new books, Inequality and the Collapse of Privilege ($3.95 Kindle, $8.95 print) and Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform ($3.95 Kindle, $8.95 print). For more, please visit the OTM essentials website.

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  • Gary Youree

    If we are ever going to get a global and/or movement from the masses to fight the collusion of the neocons and the psychopath .01% elite we need to focus on the psychopath in power. This could help dissolve the social divide among the majority by focusing on a common enemy. I am beginning to be suspect of any effort that does not focus on these undeniable facts. They want to remain invisible and can only remain in power as long as the mass population remains in denial. The fact that psychopaths, both in government and part of the subset of the 1% (sycophants and sociopaths to full blown psychopaths) is a fact that cannot be denied. Focus upon this and share this knowledge, starting discussion on this and our species might have a chance of defeating this sub-species.
    They may have a vision no longer than their own lives or have a vision of destroying the majority of mankind and thinking themselves the top species -believe that can live without use as the commodity between them – while it should be clear that they could not survive themselves and would soon be lieft with one man (psycho) standing.
    lets get this info out. When talking about the .01% – and psychopath to the pre-fix.
    We are reaching a final precipice, the majority have never ruled, and any chance for the species to continue beyond a slave race suffering in our empathy, we must force those in government, and those coming into government, to be empathic human beings. Psychopaths, the successful type who rule us, should be at the forefront of discussion!
    We do need a world union – but it must remain strong against psychopaths in power so they do not cause global financial failure if the attacks start taking effect. We must break the divide and conquer rule from the top down. The US, if even enough elements within it were to fight for our freedom, cannot do anything alone – less the bombs start dropping on us. There must be a collective of govenments, on some level, in secret – to take down their corporations and drone their bodies.

  • ICFubar

    The world of cycles. What is to be done about cycles? The Austrians say let them play out and keep government out of the way. Others , now using complexity models of the economy say implicitly that government is a strong economic force within the economy that has a role to play if they play that role correctly. That role being tied in with the masters who own the money creation business for fun and profit. Therein lies the rub of getting the government to act correctly as a countervailing balance to the excesses of boom-speculation and debt build up followed by the inevitable down cycle of economic depression and debt de leveraging-bankruptcies the Austrians go on about. To me the main question of cycles has an answer and that is the public institution (not government) of a permanent and stable money supply which the financial masters refuse to relinquish their grip over and deny us.

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