Deir Ezzor Attack Enables The “Salafist Principality” As Foreseen In The 2012 DIA Analysis

By Moon of Alabama. Originally posted at Moon of Alabama under Deir Ezzor Attack Enables The “Salafist Principality” As Foreseen In The 2012 DIA Analysis.

Two recent attacks against the Syrian Arab Army in east-Syria point to a U.S. plan to eliminate all Syrian government presence east of Palmyra. This would enable the U.S. and its allies to create a “Sunni entity” in east-Syria and west-Iraq which would be a permanent thorn in side of Syria and its allies.

A 2012 analysis by the Defense Intelligence Agency said:

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR UNDECLARED SALAFIST PRINCIPALITY IN EASTERN SYRIA (HASAKA AND DER ZOR), AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SUPPORTING POWERS TO THE OPPOSITION WANT, IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE SYRIAN REGIME …

Note that the described plan mentions exactly two cities – Hasakah and Deir Ezzor.

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On August 18 Kurdish YPK units suddenly attacked Syrian government positions in the center of Hasakah in the north-east of Syria. Before this incident the relations between the two entities had been decent despite some earlier, small clashes. The attacking Kurds were under advice from U.S. special operators. When the Syrian air force intervened the U.S. threatened to down its planes. The Syrian forces had to eventually retreat from populated areas in Hasakah and are now confined to an airport next to the city. They are cut of from supplies and will eventually have to give up.

(For the Kurds these attacks proved to be a political catastrophe. Not only did they lose all support from the Syrian government and Russian side, but Turkey used these clashes to justify its invasion into Syria. This ended the Kurdish national dream of a continues area from Iraq to the Mediterranean.)

On Saturday U.S. airplanes attacked the most important Syrian government position in Deir Ezzor. Nearly a hundred Syrian soldiers were killed and most of the heavy equipment the Deir Ezzor garrison had left was destroyed. Immediately after the attack fighters of the Islamic State occupied the bombed out government positions. These Islamic States fighters now own the heights above the Deir Ezzor airport. A day later the Islamic State shot down a Syrian government plane near Deir Ezzor.

The city and its 150,000+ inhabitants are surrounded by the Islamic State. They had been supplied from Damascus by nightly flights to the airport. As the Islamic State now has fire-control over the airport as well as anti-air weapons those supply flights are no longer possible. The U.S. air attack practically closed down the Syrian government ability to supply the city. If this situation continues the city will fall to the Islamic State.

The U.S. plan is to eventually take Raqqa by using Turkish or Kurdish proxies. It also plans to let the Iraqi army retake Mosul in Iraq. The only major city in Islamic State territory left between those two is Deir Ezzor. Should IS be able to take it away from the isolated Syrian army garrison it has at least a decent base to survive. (Conveniently there are also rich oil wells nearby.) No one, but the hampered Syrian state, would have an immediate interest to remove it from there.

North of that entity would be a Kurdish area with no ambition to expand south. North-west of the Deir Ezzor entity would be the friendly Turkish controlled “Safe Zone” that Erdogan plans to create.

The two recent moves by U.S. forces in east-Syria are consistent with the plan for a “Sunni entity” or “Salafist principality” described in the 2012 DIA document. Such an entity blocks the land connection of the “Shia crescent” which connects Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. This is the “isolation” of Syria foreseen in the DIA analysis. A “Sunni entity” in east-Syria also provides a path for the gas pipeline from Qatar via Turkey to Europe. The Syrian government had rejected the construction of such a line which goes against the fundamental interests of its ally Russia.

At first glance this U.S. policy seems to be shortsighted, There is no way the envisioned “Sunni entity” would ever become stable. Instead it would continue to be a source of terrorism which would hit far beyond the borders of Syria and the surrounding states. But it is exactly the instability of this construct that will allow for further U.S. presence in the area.  A source of insecurity that can be activated, or shut down, whenever convenient.

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  • Steven

    You have to wonder in all this who is the tail and who is the dog in all this – Saudi Arabia and its friends or the U.S. It would seem that some sort of compromise allowing for alternative energy sources for Europe from the Middle East is in just about everybody’s advantage – certainly that of the Syrian people. Allowing SA & friends a share of Europe’s energy market while maintaining prices at a high enough level for Russia to sell its oil (IF this is an issue?) would be a win-win for everyone – except possibly US neoconservatives with their wet dreams of continued US world domination and possibly the US military industrial complex.

    Among those who have the faintest clue about the Islamic State and what’s going on in the Middle East US government policies have about zero credibility right now. It is hard to believe its policy makers are so delusional they could even think about launching another war with a country like Syria or Iran – let alone Russia or China – that would have popular support.

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    • wunsacon

      >> It is hard to believe its policy makers are so delusional they could
      even think about launching another war with a country like Syria or Iran
      – let alone Russia or China – that would have popular support.

      We know from history that the public doesn’t learn from history. For instance, TPTB gave us two candidates advised by war criminals. The gullible public will elect one of these similarly staffed camps.

      TPTB controls the press and can sell narratives to enough well-meaning but gullible people to make it stick. They’ll keep concocting events, misattributing, spinning, and escalating until “the discussion is over, it’s time to act”.

  • Nofearorfavor

    I sometimes wonder if Americans in general, are aware of the fact that the world is again moving closer to war? This is not said to alarm anyone, but to make them think of becoming informed and aware, that all is not well in our world — is not business as usual. It should be very clear by now that a sizable opposition have been fighting against the imperialist bankster gangster cabal, hijacking the planet, yet, the only component that’s missing, is the informed participation of the American population which has the capacity to directly address the abuses of their governments on so many fronts.

    Street protests are good for exercising limbs and vocal chords– people are doing it all over the world and its making a difference. But, it is long overdue for the people of America and Europe to rise to the occasion, and remove those high profile parasites from positions of power, as what you achieve will not only return your country to you, but make the world a better place as a whole.

    If the Philippines can do it, you too can make your voices count to return America to transparent governance. Its for you guys decide, but yes, the world cares for the ordinary folks of America… but we can only help so much, the rest is up to you all…