There Will Be No Early General Election

Labour and Tories were neck and neck on 32% in the Mail on Sunday Survation poll on 25 June, the day before the Blarites launched their coup against the “unelectable” Corbyn. Before Corbyn became leader, Labour were consistently between 7 and 12 points behind on Survation. That Corbyn has done so well in popular opinion and in elections, is remarkable considering the Blairites who dominate his own parliamentary labour party have been conspiring and briefing against him from day one.

The coup “rationale” is based on two lies – that Labour was struggling in the polls, and that an early general election is imminent.

Whoever becomes the new Tory Prime Minister, there is not going to be an early general election. No new Tory PM will throw away the 30 seat gain over Labour the Tories will get from the new Boundary Commission Review.

The new PM will have 3.5 years in Downing Street with a working Commons majority. As I predicted, the temperature of debate in the Tory party has cooled almost completely. Their leadership contest is genteel. People who were accusing each other of outright lies and appalling behaviour just one week ago, are now all chummy together again. The Tories care about power above all else. They have it and won’t risk it.

An incoming PM has never been under an obligation to call a general election; since the Fixed Term Parliaments Act they are under an obligation not to do so. By genuine coincidence, Theresa May just said almost exactly that just after I typed it.

Of one thing I am absolutely sure. The public contempt for the political class which was behind much of the Brexit vote, is growing into a still stronger movement as the unedifying naked power seeking of all the right wingers, Labour and Tory, unfolds in plain view. I suspect if Corbyn holds on there is a chance the public mood the mainstream media is unanimously attempting to whip up against him, may surge to support him strongly, due to intense dislike of the politicians and so-called journalists who are hounding him.

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  • ICFubar

    Thanks for this post as an understanding of the British political scene is most important now.. It seems to me, and I might be very wrong on this, but the Blairites see a opening to dislodge their truer Labour leader Corbyn because of his choice to Remain as breaking with the rank and file party members wishes to Brexit, these being the support for Corbyn? Perhaps the rank and file need to organize themselves to remove the Blairites from the constituency level and appoint new candidates which will more closely represent their wishes. I would say remove the Blairites first before thinking of removing Corbyn for this grave mistake in judgement over the British sovereignty versus subjugation to the EU-Globalization issue.

    • marki

      Know your enemy! If the nsa&cia i-Snoop on Angela Merkel, their own
      footsoldier, how much more will they be logging in to buscheny inc.s
      enemies such as Corbyn and yourselves? Whitlam moved to kick the yanks
      out of Pine Gap, but was ambushed and deposed by an extraordinary coup
      before he could. Coincidence? Read Perkin’s “Confessions of an Economic
      Hitman” if you wish to understand politics in our global age.
      Brits need educating!
      bankers dont like him, buscheny inc. dont like him, cia dont like him.!
      big enemies!
      powerful ability to subvert
      reminds me of JFK, but without the pecadillo’s
      a JFK with no dirt.
      the people are going to have to be mighty diligent if they want Corbyn to survive, let alone lead Britain.
      murdoch wants corbyns head on a silver platter,
      buscheny inc. do too
      Murdoch has been the king maker and breaker, intends to remain so!
      Labor MPs know this,.. their allegiance is mostly with Morduch not Corbyn nor britains poor.
      Brits as a Nation mostly dont know either of these things.
      Tony Blair was GQ philanthropist of the Year (after saving Murdoch from the News of the World enquiry). Favours get repaid.
      Should you expect some BIG media diversions around the Chilcott report date? I would.

      Separately, if Corbyn pushes for War Crimes there’s Bush and Cheney
      will immediately utilise all their firepower to shoot down and terminate
      anyone associated. (Valerie Plame)
      Brits haven’t worked this out.
      Bush Dynasty has CIA at their disposal. That’s extraordinarily extensive.
      Brits wouldnt even conceive of all the dirt and dirty politics, what the NSA is really for.
      I surely dont say you are in error, but I do say there are even more factors. These are worth knowing if we are ever going to deal with the problem.

      • ICFubar

        Yes, I understand what you are writing. It’s the same all over the world. The Britons need to know what they are up against in seeking sovereignty for themselves. May the people of Briton prevail in this existential endeavour.