“The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history”
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

“I know that history is going to be dominated by an improbable event, I just don’t know what that event will be.” Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Nassim Taleb is a prickly arrogant SOB who doesn’t give a crap what intellectuals, academics, and other establishment elitists think about him. He has an Ivy league MBA, but despises everything about the curriculum of Ivy League MBA programs. He has a PhD, but scorns academics and their worship of theories and models. He enjoys poking holes in the storylines of the propaganda spewing corporate media. He glories in ridiculing the predictions of captured “experts” mouthing the talking points of whichever corporate interest is paying them blood money.

I read his brilliant Black Swan book back in 2008. It was a difficult read, but there were so many gems of wisdom throughout the book, it was a powerful tome predicting the financial collapse in real time. He wrote it in 2006. He understands the world doesn’t operate the way Ivy League models say it is supposed to operate. The world is propelled by black swans, not a normal distribution of the world. He was right in 2006 and he’s right now. The paragraph below has been making the rounds in the alternate media this past week. The establishment media would never publicize it, as their job is to protect the crumbling social order.

He sees what the pseudo intellectuals, highly paid pundit monkeys, think tank pay for play sages, and other mouthpieces for the establishment have failed to see. They didn’t see the 2008 black swan coming and they fail to grasp the black swan flying into their midst today. Taleb understands unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Trump is an extreme outlier who will play a large role in sweeping away the existing establishment. The “experts” foisted upon the masses by the dying legacy media are clueless as to what is really happening.

“The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know”
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Trump’s blunt, angry, provocative, anti-establishment message has struck a chord among millions of disaffected Americans who have been ignored, abused, scorned, and shit on by the elitist establishment, banking cabal, corrupt politicians and government apparatchiks. The Deep State establishment has overstepped their bounds. Their ravenous pillaging of the national wealth through outsourcing millions of American jobs, largest mortgage control fraud in history, and outrageous gall in shifting their losing bets onto the backs of hard working Americans is about to bite them in the ass.


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  • Don Robertson

    “The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know” LoL This is the ultimate in understatements. The experts are all outright frauds. Reality is infinitely complex. No one is an expert who meets the hypothetical definition of expert. There are great bullshitters. And there are people who get sucked in by the great bullshitters, followers conned by the con artists.

    Even Taleb is a victim of this delusion, for he talks of pseudointellectuals as if there were credible intellectuals. Every intellectual is a fraudulent bullshitter. If you don’t think so, you clearly haven’t read between the lines of enough history.

    History is an egregious apology for the present, at best!

    The only thing worse than the so-called expert, are the soothesayers, like William Strauss, who wrote the The Fourth Turning, something of a cult classic in the pot-smoke-filled digital caverns of the althernative media. Predicting the future should be a capital offiense it is so ridiculous.

    In fact, the world would be better off were all the so-called intellectuals rounded up and shot.

    There are no intellectual chimpanzees! Are they fucking the world up?

    The problem with the intellectual’s pragmatism, David Hume’s devilish notion about how to light the world afire, is that pragmatism wholly ignores the infinite complexity of reality. Keep fucking around with it, and sooner or later you’ll invent something really fucked up. That’s where we are today. The modern wictchcraft known as science has really fucked things up.

    And here we have some intellectual jackass trying to say he understands the Trump phenomenon well enough to call a spade a spade. You’re being conned by a con artist is all.

    My suggestion is that we embrace the future, for we have no choice. Embrace the future and be a little less impressed by anyone proclaiming their erudition.

    There all just a bunch of fucking lying assholes.

  • Esmae

    Imo, Trump a diversion at best…

    • Bev

      Trump may be there to be the foil to Clinton, because of his overt racism, sexism, and more. Bernie Sanders is the much better revolutionary candidate. He explains that Trump supporters don’t know that Trump thinks THE MINIMUM WAGE IS TOO HIGH. So all of Trump’s anti-immigrant hate, would NOT benefit white Americans as he does not intend to increase wages, but lower them, as well as lower benefits, and social programs.

      Win or Lose, the Sanders Campaign Is Building A Movement in Florida

      An Open Letter to Bernie Sanders

      Dear Bernie,

If you want to win the presidency and elect a revolutionary congress, you must find a way to force accurate counts of votes across the country. There is no reason to believe that machine generated vote counts are accurate when they are not checked for accuracy. This is particularly difficult in places like South Carolina and parts of Kansas, where no paper trail exists to even attempt a public recount. Or Arizona where manual hand counting of ballots is not permitted.

      I live in Kansas. I’m a professional statistician and an ASQ Certified Quality Engineer. I find certain patterns in election results quite disturbing. Graphs of Oklahoma primary results are below. Both exhibit a common and concerning pattern: as the number of votes cast in a precinct increases, so does the vote share for the candidate favored by the Washington establishment. This pattern is NOT due to random chance nor do voter demographics explain it. In the fall, the Republican candidates across the board can be expected to show such a pattern wherever machine counting of votes is combined with poor to non-existent auditing of those results. The pattern is consistent with election rigging.

      Citizens like myself have had little success in forcing our officials to show the paper trails so we can have confidence in their reported results. I’ve been trying for more than three years to get access to the paper records that would allow me to assess how accurate our computer tabulated official vote counts are. After my latest legal setback, it will be another year before I might get permission. In the meantime, we will be having another election on non-transparent voting machines.

      You, as a candidate, have the right to demand manual recounts. Well, in some places anyway. If you were to do so, irrefutable evidence of problems with vote counts will emerge in some of those places. If and only if your supporters can find and correct those problems can your revolution win at the ballot box.

      In states that have paper trails, I suggest you start asking for manual recounts of the paper ballots and Voter Verified Paper Audit Trails (VVPAT) where you can. Whether you won or lost the contest doesn’t matter. The point is to evaluate the size and number of discrepancies and check for bias. Laws vary from state to state. Typically there is a short window of time to request recounts. Many jurisdictions will balk and try to keep you from doing so by various legal maneuvers. But there will be many opportunities through the primary season. You have supporters that can be trained and provide labor hours when needed. A 100% manual recount isn’t necessary. A random sample of precincts is sufficient.

      If you recount and find discrepancies, you might receive additional delegates. More importantly, if you were to demand recounts, it would highlight the fact that in many states, those machine counts are never audited or verified with the original paper records. Most citizens are shocked to discover that their vote counting process is not verified, or in some places, verifiable. I know I was when I first discovered this truth about Sedgwick County Kansas in 2012.


Thank you

      Beth Clarkson


      The Charts below show the cumulative share of the vote each candidate acquires as the size of the precincts increase. This model clearly shows that as the size of the precinct increases Clinton and Rubio gain a larger share of the votes while Sanders, Trump and Cruz lose votes. This is NOT a random fluke, this is a consistent pattern with machine counted votes. While in OK, this trend was not enough to change who won the election, it may have had an impact on the number of delegates each received.



      Liberals have stopped snickering at Bernie Sanders’ (hugely popular) campaign

      A 12-Step Program to Save US Democracy

      By Mark Crispin Miller