2015 Was First Pre-Election Year to End In the Red Since the Great Depression

The year before elections is almost always the best year for stocks.

Investors notes:

Pre-election years takes the top spot as the best-performing year for stocks.

UBS reports:

Ahead of US Presidential Elections  (Pre-Election Year or Year 3 and Election Year or Year 4) politicians often promote an accommodating and pro-business agenda so that the economy is  strong,  stock  market  is  bullish,  and  voters  are  upbeat  heading
to the polls.

The Stock Trader’s Almanac notes (via a press release by publisher Wiley):

Pre-election years are notoriously the best year of the four-year cycle and fifth years of decades are the strongest, so 2015 has some solid history behind it,” says the Almanac’s Editor-in-chief Jeffrey A. Hirsch. “The Dow has not had a loss in a pre-election year since 1939.

But in 2015, the Dow closed down for the year2.2% into the red.

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  • jadan

    Surprised you didn’t reprint Michael Snyder’s article on the same theme, GW: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/2015-was-the-worst-year-for-the-stock-market-since-2008. Warren Buffet lost 7.8 billion in the 2015 market. Nearly 500 hedge funds bit the dust. As Snyder’s prognostications become reality, he feels the need to defend himself against those who say he doesn’t love his country and is running it down. All the fundamentalist Christians out there, like Snyder himself, feel a certain vindication when their Bible-based version of reality checks out. One might think that the Republican dominated House might change its attitude in view of the coming economic storm, but one would be wrong. No, the religious idiocy prevailing will double-down in a vain attempt to please their tyrant god: defund Planned Parenthood, ban abortion, cut food stamps, cut taxes for the rich, impose even greater austerity. Ass-hole Rubio wants to amend the Constitution to require a balanced budget. These people are insane, and so it would appear are the people at the Fed who have just raised interest rates. Snyder himself is nuts, but he just happens to be right!

    • Don Robertson

      Wow. Great alternative media post for the typical jaded nonsense read hereabouts in the echoing depths of the cyber delusion.

      I tend to believe that yes, things are really bad, in the world economy, but that they are really bad by specific design, as a strategy meant to accomplish a specific goal. I am not with the America haters so common in the world of the alternative media.

      Currently the whole focus of Western hubris is China. And China is being dismantled by the ongoing (decade long) planned worldwide recession/depression that is originating in the Western World. If some entity is indeed responsible for worldwide economic disorder and chaos, as it appears to me, it is clearly the U.S. with the FED at the helm of our intentionally scuttled ship of state.

      Markets for Chinese products have dried up by design, worldwide, obviously. By design, or otherwise, the Obama Administration would be printing money even faster than it is, and spreading it around the countryside to those lazy spendthrifts who want every material good they do not have, which seems to be the current fruitcake-progressive rationale of fairness and equality. Gimmie, gimmie, gimmie! Work? Don’t make me laugh!

      As bad as things are here, they are far worse in Europe, worse again in the Middle East, Africa, and worst of all throughout Asia, especially if we gauge the worse-ness of things by the likelihood of revolution or another USSR-like collapse. The portent is part of the planned (and ongoing) destruction of China as an ascendant world power.

      Unlike most I read, I do not believe Russia is at loggerheads with the U.S. It all sounds fake. It all equates to something other than what it appears to be. I believe Russia and Putin are doing their part in our common implementation of a cogent economic strategy, dis-enabling China’s uncouth designs on the world. The Chinese and the Chinese government that lauds over the Chinese would not make good wardens of the Twenty-First Century World. This is a given. It’s a widely accepted given in most every country on the face of the earth, including most of China and even all of Iran.

      The U.S has many faults, but no other country has shown any sign it is ready to supplant the U.S. by some semblance of universal acceptance on the world’ stage. And all the talk in the alternative media about how the world hates the U.S., has yet to make even a small blemish apparent in the colossal goodwill built up by the U.S. stretching back now more than a century.

      Face it, we are heading into the 16th year of the often cited and heralded New American Century, with not a single significant sign U.S world dominance could end any time soon. Economically the U.S. has the complete backing of the economic world despite all the ongoing economic chaos.

      Even the Chinese oligarchs are coming here in droves in an effort to escape the sure destruction of the current order of things in China.

      • jadan

        So you think the geniuses in Washington, or Langley, are in control and economic downturn is a deliberate strategy to defeat China’s economy? Amazing! All I can say, Mr. America First, is hang on to your grab bars, you’re about to get your comeuppance!

        • Don Robertson

          “[…] you’re about to get your comeuppance!” That seems to be one of the recurrent themes in the widespread alternative media delusional scheme of things going back decades. The collapse-soothsayers are as common as leaves on the ground every Fall. There are second and third generation collapse soothsayers peddling their fantasies online today in the alternative media.

          Can’t you recognize the group delusion? It’s like the Beanie Babies fad. These people are so delusional, in their endless frustration they have begun to express a shared hatred for America, a hatred they are embarrassed have pointed out, and a hatred that arises only because America has failed to prove them to be the minor Nostradamus they see in the mirror when they wake up every day. Take off the pointy hat for a few minutes.

          –>>Reality is infinitely complex.<– And those who try to predict the future are going to fail. Those who are sure they have a handle on the future are liars, straight up liars, buffoons, con men seeking self-aggrandizement by puffing their version of omniscience. They're a laughable joke. The common alternative media soothsayer is exactly like those who for centuries have predicted the Second Coming. Their kooky world is very small and predictable between their plugged ears and behind their closed eyes.

          Take a good close look at this chart, and tell me again about the New American Century coming to an end any time soon. Those second-grade predictions of doom go well back into the last century.

          You'll have to imagine for yourself where China's debt fits-in on this chart, with apparently 20% or more of that Chinese debt in default. Collapse is already upon China. The Chinese people are starving to death -again- and suffocating in their crumbling, smog-ridden cities.


          • jadan

            You mention the “second coming”, which is the key to the world view of the fundamentalist Christian and to most believers in the “end time”. You seem to be immune to the subconscious compulsion of this belief that affects most everyone, Christian or not. Apparently you’ve not heard of overpopulation or climate change, resource depletion, water shortage, nuclear war, nuclear pollution, etc etc.Irrational as a religious belief in the second coming may be, it is not at all irrational to have an abiding fear of the future and to speculate about the survival of the human ( and all other! ) species. We are told by science that we are in the midst of the 6th extinction. You sound like a 19th Century positivist and you seem to be gloating over China’s dilemma. Have no idea why you dislike China so much, but we’re all in the same boat, the human ship of fools. Not even god can predict the future, true enough, but we look at the future in terms of probabilities and it seems probable that our way of life is hardly more sustainable than the Chinese. More than probable because there is no one in control. Your control fantasy is your delusion.

          • Don Robertson

            “You mention the “second coming” […]”

            In this discussion with you, I mention Beanie Babies, buffoons and self-aggrandizement too.

            Your rhetoric is pointlessly mundane, and alarmist in a pointless John the Baptist sort of way. Do you plan to dunk everyone’s head in the Sea of Galilee once your soothsaying eccentricities are proved true? God bless the mentally defective among us.

            It’s one thing to run around screaming, the sky is falling. And it is quite something else to attempt an explanation why, and, what might possibly and necessarily be done about it over the short term.

            The real danger right now is over. China is done. The Islamic State is a Patrice Lamumba-like CIA farce. Where is their George Washington? And the laughable American Progressive movement has been put back into the fetid dustbin of all the other wide-eyed Utopia-peddlers.

            Over population is being addressed, just exactly as everyone seems to be clamoring for, in the most obvious of solutions.

            If a full-blown world war breaks out, no one is going to be surprised which side everyone ends up on this time.

            I live in far northern Maine, 250 miles northeast of Montreal, Quebec. There is no extinction event going on here, nor is one likely to reach my neighborhood any time soon.

            Life is good. But life is short too… So stop wasting your very limited time predicting the end of the world. The end of you will come long before the end of the world.

          • jadan

            Clearly you have great confidence in your own sanguine point of view. One could say you are a person of faith. In what I cannot tell. But may the new year bring a moose within range and may the bears spare your larder.

          • Don Robertson

            Larder? LoL I live in an apartment on Main Street, two doors from the library, and more importantly three blocks from a 25 yard indoor swimming pool I work out in five days a week.

            I have faith in my ability. That ability has gotten me through six and a half decades despite a smile and attitude that are brandished like a sword. It’s an ability that has forged a life without ever having been encumbered by debt, and without the need of doctors, lawyers or accountants

            Life is good. But, trust me when I say, the good life cannot be purchased. You must work for the good life every step of the way. It’s a question of making the right choices.

            Those that live like reckless, slothful, self-indulgent fools, suffer and die like fools too.

            Trust in what I am telling you. I could be wrong. But I am trying to impart the truth as I see it.

          • Bruce Keller

            I don’t see why people get all bent out of shape about derivatives. Most derivatives are hedges I assume, so any bigger crash would actually be absorbed by the derivatives. I wonder if the breakdown of society would actually generate more “money” through the derivatives than existed before? That would lead to hyperinflation as opposed to deflation though I suppose, unless the derivatives are more balanced than that. Maybe they all practically cancel each other out? No one know, but just because it’s a big number doesn’t mean doom. Just a whole lot of hedging.

      • hidflect

        I think you give the Fed too much credit (haha!). Having lived through the Japanese collapse in the ’90’s and the subsequent propping up of the banking sector that created a zombie economy, I can say with confidence that the exact same thing happened in 2008. None of the elites had a vision beyond saving their precious bankster buddies except maybe also claiming a vague excuse in their minds that they were preventing economic instability.

        The kraken that was released in the form of QE reacted a little unexpectedly when the banks failed to lend the money out and just banked it back with the Fed. The Fed couldn’t publicly admit they screwed up so they pretended it was the plan all along and found themselves unable to re-cage the QE monster for many more years than expected.

        But whatever shenanigans they pursued, the intention was,is and always will be to enrich the banks. That’s it. They don’t plan beyond that, I think.

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