Citibank: Global Recession In 2016

Mainstream Sentiment Turns Bearish

Citi’s chief economist – Willem Buiter – just wrote:

A global recession starting in 2016, led by China is now our Global Economics team’s main scenario. Uncertainty remains, but the likelihood of a timely and effective policy response seems to be diminishing.

Mainstream sentiment is turning so bullish so fast that the top headline at Business Insider today is title “A new global recession has begun“.

And see this.

Why are we heading into another crash? Why didn’t all of the governments’ and central banks’ efforts since 2008 stabilize the economy?

As we’ve noted for 8 years:

Government leaders are doing all of the wrong things for the economy, and that the economy cannot fundamentally stabilize – and we cannot regain prosperity – unless:


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  • billsimpson

    The Chinese government will probably succeed with stimulus spending on infrastructure one last time. After that runs its course in about 3 years, look out. Have cash and gold coins after that. If cash doesn’t work, you’ll starve anyway. Some convenient medium of exchange will always be needed. Inside the United States, if dollars no longer work, we’re toast.
    As a store of wealth, gold will always be valued by people, just don’t think paper gold actually exists. Get coins in your personal possession. But I wouldn’t buy a lot of gold just yet. I don’t think the price has bottomed. I wouldn’t be shocked if gold was at $900 an ounce in 2 years. But it could just as easily be at $2,000 an ounce.
    The beauty of gold is that you can bury it in an old ammo box out in the yard, and it will be unchanged whenever you might need to dig it up. Nobody is likely to dig up your property searching for gold coins. Burglars seldom have the time to metal detector people’s lots. It is a bit obvious too. And you get a lot of false positives, like 99.9999%! A backhoe might work. A safe deposit box in your local bank works too. Revolutionaries might shoot you if you try and sell gold after they take over, and tell you to turn it in. Things get bad enough, and there is no guarantee of anything preserving wealth. But gold in the yard might outlast the revolutionaries, if you don’t need to use it while they are running things.
    One thing about stocks, remember that some of them can go to zero. And that after a stock market crash, it could take you a long time to get back to even. Don’t assume that the period from 2009 to 2014 is the norm after a crash.

    • Bill Sanders

      Most of us live in condos or apartments, so digging holes in the yard is not allowed! I just bought several boxes of silver coins – most of them NOT Silver Eagles, due to the $4 premium. Hoping that silver will outperform gold…

  • Sep 7, 2015 The UNITED STATES is a CORPORATION — Sofia Smallstorm

    Researcher and film maker Sofia Smallstorm joins me to expose the sad truth that the United States of America is a Corporation and its legal fiction citizens are little more than assets – or liabilities – on the Globalist balance sheet. Sofia says, “In 1871 the real America vanished and it was replaced with this incorporated government including Washington District of Columbia. So the Federal Government became a Corporation. And by 1933 with Roosevelt sitting in office, the whole corporate system was washed down into all the cities, the states, the agencies, that’s when the reality really flushed itself out in this fictitious form.”

    Our “Representatives” are officers of a corporation, they aren’t public servants in any way and they cannot act as such. So that helps explain why they no longer seem to care about representing the people.

  • twinspeedr

    Point of correction; Conventional war actually does give an artificial shot of strength an economy because of churn, morale and a general loosening of the purse strings to fight the good fight. But with a limited, and somewhat unpredictable shelf life depending on circumstances.

    However, to your point the phenomenon of “political war” certainly weakens the economy after protracted time period. Today’s war’s are killing us; not only because of the drain on morale and financial resources, but because everyone is already tapped out and the purse itself was hocked on Ebay because we need gas money.