Merkel Apparently Fears Devastating Defeat of the Ukrainian Army

“Merkel apparently fears devastating defeat of the Ukrainian army”

German Economic News  |  Published: 02/06/15 00:02 clock  |  52 Comments

(Translation by Eric Zuesse, 6 Feb. 2015)

Angela Merkel seems to anticipate the economic and military collapse of Ukraine. Berlin’s civil service is naturally working hard on a peace plan. To avert fiasco, Merkel must now discuss a truce with Vladimir Putin. This war could end profitably for the rebels.

Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande met on Thursday with Petro Poroshenko. On Friday, their journey continues to Putin in Moscow.

The federal government has denied a newspaper report of a peace plan by Germany and France to Ukraine. “This is not true,” a government spokesman said on Thursday evening to a report in the Süddeutsche Zeitung (Friday edition). The Journal had reported that Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande wanted to propose to Kiev’s President Petro Poroshenko on Thursday night an immediate ceasefire.

However, convinced by the denial to the contrary, the SZ writes that the new program had been already in preparation for some days, by high officials of the governments involved. The trigger for the dynamics seems to be the combination of military gains by the separatists, and the U.S. debate on sending lethal weapons to Ukraine.

Poroshenko wants to make it clear that the last chance has come to save Ukraine against a dramatic military defeat and economic collapse. On Thursday, the Ukrainian central bank had its key interest rate rise by five percentage points to 19.5 per cent, and the local currency UAH fell by almost half of its value.

Therefore, it seems that Merkel and Hollande were now advised to speak immediately with Putin on a solution to the conflict.

In return for a ceasefire, separatists would be granted broad autonomy in eastern Ukraine, and covering a larger area that than previously planned. The demarcation line that is based on the Minsk Agreement will now be unsustainable. According to the SZ, territorial gains by the separatists will necessitate adding up to 1500 square kilometers to the proposed autonomous region.

Sources were not disclosed, but the SZ is usually well informed in such matters.

However, even if the peace plan in the reported form should still be ready for signing by Angela Merkel, the military and economic collapse of Ukraine is apparently nonetheless expected.

Hollande and Merkel came together on Thursday in Kiev with Poroshenko to find a way out of the escalating situation. On Friday they want to discuss in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin ending the conflict. In the background of the diplomatic thrust are the increasingly violent battles in Ukraine’s east.

Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier traveled to Latvia and Poland on Thursday to discuss there with his counterparts the crisis. Steinmeier warned of a “total loss of control” in the military conflict in eastern Ukraine. Moreover, ways should be explored “to calm the situation before the conflict gets out of control and is not amenable to solution by proposed policies.”

Both Human Rights Watch and the OSCE reported this week that remains were found of cluster bombs in Lugansk. There is evidence that these were fired by the Ukrainian army. The attack injured two civilians; two more were killed, and an unknown number of other civilians might also have been hit.

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  • colinjames71

    Can’t remember where I read it but an article discussing a recent NY Times op-ed notes or supposes that back-channel negotiations are taking place, and that the Times op-ed, frequently used by TBTB to indicate a shift in policy and communicate intentions, could very well mean a major agreement could be forthcoming. Problem is, where the “separatists” would have taken a federalization deal last spring, that’s no longer acceptable to the DNR and LPR… and why do all mentions of negotiations never mention representatives of these self-declared republics? Putin is the leader of Russia, not eastern Ukraine. Oh wait they did mention Zacharchenko recently, headlines across the world declaring he called the leaders in Kiev “miserable jews”… when what he actually said was “miserable representatives of the great Jewish people”. Terrible.

  • unheilig

    Does the “Ukrainian Army” even exist? I’m reading of entire areas of Ukraine where the people simply disappear when the press-gangers show up, or (as in the Odessa region) openly defy them. Elsewhere, we have various private armies sponsored by the oligarchs, plus punishment battalions like Azov who are beholden to nobody.

  • Nick Smegg

    i don’t know how seriously I can take anything Zuess writes – especially since in a prominent article on this site he seems to have confused two American academics – Stephen Walt and Stephen F Cohen – the latter a harsh critic of American policy but whom Zuess has smeared as an Obama apologist.

    Please – journalistic integrity.

  • Manuel Jimenez

    Russia and the people of Eastern Ukraine must put conditions to the Kiev surrender, they can not let Poroshenko and his pal with the binoculars off the hook, they have to be tried for crimes against the people of Eastern Ukraine, other wise no truce.