Roubini: Many Davos Speakers Think It’s Like 1914 … Right Before WW1 Broke Out

Nouriel Roubini, Davos Speakers, Kyle Bass, Larry Edelson, Charles Nenner, James Dines, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Jim Rickards and Martin Armstrong Warn of Wider War

Well-known economist Nouriel Roubini tweeted from the gathering of the rich and powerful at the World Economic Forum in Davos:

Many speakers compare 2014 to 1914 when WWI broke out & no one expected it. A black swan in the form of a war between China & Japan?


Both Abe and an influential Chinese analyst don’t rule out a military confrontation between China and Japan. Memories of 1914?

Many other economists have forecast war.

Kyle Bass writes:

Trillions of dollars of debts will be restructured and millions of financially prudent savers will lose large percentages of their real purchasing power at exactly the wrong time in their lives. Again, the world will not end, but the social fabric of the profligate nations will be stretched and in some cases torn. Sadly, looking back through economic history, all too often war is the manifestation of simple economic entropy played to its logical conclusion. We believe that war is an inevitable consequence of the current global economic situation.

Larry Edelson wrote an email to subscribers entitled “What the “Cycles of War” are saying for 2013″, which states:

Since the 1980s, I’ve been studying the so-called “cycles of war” — the natural rhythms that predispose societies to descend into chaos, into hatred, into civil and even international war.

I’m certainly not the first person to examine these very distinctive patterns in history. There have been many before me, notably, Raymond Wheeler, who published the most authoritative chronicle of war ever, covering a period of 2,600 years of data.

However, there are very few people who are willing to even discuss the issue right now. And based on what I’m seeing, the implications could be absolutely huge in 2013.

Former Goldman Sachs technical analyst Charles Nenner – who has made some big accurate calls, and counts major hedge funds, banks, brokerage houses, and high net worth individuals as clients – says there will be “a major war starting at the end of 2012 to 2013”, which will drive the Dow to 5,000.

Veteran investor adviser James Dines forecast a war is epochal as World Wars I and II, starting in the Middle East.

Billionaire investor Jim Rogers notes:

A continuation of bailouts in Europe could ultimately spark another world war, says international investor Jim Rogers.


“Add debt, the situation gets worse, and eventually it just collapses. Then everybody is looking for scapegoats. Politicians blame foreigners, and we’re in World War II or World War whatever.”

Marc Faber says that the American government will start new wars in response to the economic crisis:

We’re in the middle of a global currency war – i.e. a situation where nations all compete to devalue their currencies the most in order to boost exports. And Brazilian president-elect Rousseff said in 2010:

The last time there was a series of competitive devaluations … it ended in world war two.

Jim Rickards agrees:

Currency wars lead to trade wars, which often lead to hot wars. In 2009, Rickards participated in the Pentagon’s first-ever “financial” war games. While expressing confidence in America’s ability to defeat any other nation-state in battle, Rickards says the U.S. could get dragged into “asymmetric warfare,” if currency wars lead to rising inflation and global economic uncertainty.

As does Jim Rogers:

Trade wars always lead to wars.

Martin Armstrong wrote in August:

Our greatest problem is the bureaucracy wants a war. This will distract everyone from the NSA and justify what they have been doing. They need a distraction for the economic decline that is coming.

Armstrong argued last month that war plans against Syria are really about debt and spending:

The Syrian mess seems to have people lining up on Capital Hill when sources there say the phone calls coming in are overwhelmingly against any action. The politicians are ignoring the people entirely. This suggests there is indeed a secret agenda to achieve a goal outside the discussion box. That is most like the debt problem and a war is necessary to relief the pressure to curtail spending.

And given that many influential economists wrongly believe that war is good for the economy … many are overtly or quietly pushing for war.

In addition, historians say that the risk of world war is rising because the U.S. feels threatened by a rising China … and the U.S. government considers economic rivalry to be a basis for war

Moreover, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said that the Iraq war was really about oil, and former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill says that Bush planned the Iraq war before 9/11. And see this and this. If that war was for petroleum, other oil-rich countries might be invaded as well.

And the American policy of using the military to contain China’s growing economic influence – and of considering economic rivalry to be a basis for war – are creating a tinderbox.

Finally, multi-billionaire investor Hugo Salinas Price says:

What happened to [Libya’s] Mr. Gaddafi, many speculate the real reason he was ousted was that he was planning an all-African currency for conducting trade. The same thing happened to him that happened to Saddam because the US doesn’t want any solid competing currency out there vs the dollar. You know Gaddafi was talking about a gold dinar.

Indeed, senior CNBC editor John Carney noted:

Is this the first time a revolutionary group has created a central bank while it is still in the midst of fighting the entrenched political power? It certainly seems to indicate how extraordinarily powerful central bankers have become in our era.

Robert Wenzel of Economic Policy Journal thinks the central banking initiative reveals that foreign powers may have a strong influence over the rebels.

This suggests we have a bit more than a ragtag bunch of rebels running around and that there are some pretty sophisticated influences. “I have never before heard of a central bank being created in just a matter of weeks out of a popular uprising,” Wenzel writes.

Indeed, some say that recent wars have really been about bringing all countries into the fold of Western central banking.

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  • michaelrivero

    Because every time the money-junkies get into this mess, they use a World War to get out.

    Crash of 1907 -> WW1

    Crash of 1929 -> WW2

    Crash of 2008 -> WW3

    • Tonto

      The blatherskite Rivero is trying to play cute with history. He has seemingly forgotten Korea, Vietnam and the Los Angeles Rodney King riots when a black American was videotaped throwing a brick from behind into the head of an unsuspecting truck driver, Reginald Denny, and was found not guilty of the assault. Justice is not a logical path in world affairs.

      There will be no war between Japan and China. Why? Because even the mention of Japan getting militarily involved, and three quarters of the Chinese and most of Southeast Asia will die of stark fright. The former President of Singapore, ninety year old Lee Kuan Yew, made mention of his own fear of the Japanese returning while being interviewed in the Charlie Rose Show some years back. The fear is more than palpable. It’s the stuff of nightmares for well more than a billion and a half people in Asia.

      It is not beyond the ken of most Americans to envision the U.S. arming Japan with nuclear weapons, to keep the balance of power in Asia stable, and everyone leaning in the right direction.

      No, there will not be a war between Japan and China. This is all about how those countries that can, will and are, lining-up behind the American Empire. The list is very long, and more are asking to get on the list every day…

      Even Iran is volunteering to line up behind the United States right now.

      China is being sent a powerful message about dominance in the world. And China will listen with a keen ear, even though the U.S. CIA and Wall Street are playing havoc with China in every way imaginable.

      In this world, you do not get away with laughing at the U.S Secretary of the Treasury, when he has bothered to come to your country to let you know how things REALLY work. And Timmy Geithner is not going to let the opportunity to laugh at the ruined Chinese pass by.

      Mark these words. China’s run is well over. China is crumbling. And now China is crumbling in terror at the thought that the Japanese will be marching into town, again.

      Those who remember history, know best how to use it.

      • michaelrivero

        The context of the original article was with regard to world wars, so I confined my linkages to those. However a careful study of the history of the United States shows a connection between the private central bankers and wars, assassinations, and other major events.

        The war of 1812, as one example, was launched by Great Britain at the urging of the Bank of England when the US Congress refused to renew the charter for the First Bank of the United States. Andrew Jackson, the only US President to actually pay off the national debt, ran for his second term in office on a pledge to shut down the Second Bank of the United States. Shortly after succeeding, there was an attempted assassination which failed.

        More at tinyurl (dot) com/b4ah7tt

        • Tonto

          Of course all wars are bankers’ wars. That’s like saying, all wars are fought with armaments.

          Aplomb during the Civil War era was about getting to the battle with the most and bravest men. But now it’s all about getting to the battle with the most and the most penetrating guns.

          While the Chinese recently sent a cute little EverReady Bunny to the moon, (it’s about the size of a miniature poodle), the U.S. recently put a massive orbiting neutron-bomb gunship into orbit. This is not the first such orbiting gunship the U.S. military has launched. And now the US has a space-based gunship array from which the US can completely defend all vantage points everywhere on earth and in space. And, this is just a redundant backup system, redundant to the ground based systems that are also redundantly designed. Checkmate.

          If anyone is serious about talking about how history teaches lessons to the naive, they ought look at the history of sneak attacks on the U.S., both real and feigned. -Don’t Tread on Me- used to be just a defensive threat.

          Now it is a horrifying and often-used offensive weapon in the arsenal of the American Empire prosecuting its war on terror military exercises. Furthermore, when the US says to Japan (or Russia for that matter) “You’re not going to let them do that to you!” You can bet, neither Japan or Russia will hesitate for a second to assert their outrage at the implied indignity, even if impugned, and no matter who actually perpetrated the affair.

          The American soldiers are in part, other nations eager to do the bidding of the American Empire now.

          The American Empire has coordinated the ongoing worldwide economic depression for a reason. This depression is going to firmly establish the pecking order for the entirety of the 21st Century and beyond. Literally the only other country that has seriously stepped out of line, is China.

          And now China has realized its mistake.

          But realizing the mistake alone is not enough. The Chinese oligarchs have begun to flee China because too many promises were made that have not been and cannot be kept in China. Why cannot these promises be kept? Because this American-manufactured worldwide depression has effectively closed worldwide markets to Chinese exports. That was the point of creating this worldwide depression.

          No one is buying Chinese junk anymore, or at least not enough of it to keep the Chinese economy solvent.

          So, revolution is coming again to China, and in a very big way. The CIA is making sure revolution is coming to China. Wall Street is making sure revolution is coming to China. How does anything think the Chinese oligarchs feel about having the NSA recording and listening in on all their communications? It must be terrifying, because the Chinese are a deceitful and dishonest people. Their ethics are not western ethics.

          And of course, if revolution does not come to China, THEN, the Japanese are going to be coming to China.

          And meanwhile, the robotic revolution is rapidly coming to Japan, Europe and the US, a revolution that will quite literally obliterate any inherent advantage found in the feverishly toiling masses of China.

          The Chinese toiling masses are going to be very disappointed in the Chinese government that has promised too much. It will not be the dollar that collapses and goes valueless. It will be the Yuan. Why? Because modern China has always had a corrupt centrally planned economy. And the overhead of it is growing daily.

          When the few rich Chinese sell their gold to international speculators in order to eat, they will be selling it for about $200 an ounce, -American-, and maybe much less than that.

          Don’t believe it? Imagine the logistics problem of trying to feed a centrally planned economy of people numbering well more than a billion, when the paper currency upon which they rely collapses and goes completely valueless.

          There’s almost nothing the Chinese have not learned to eat. This has come about due entirely to necessity. This is what it means to be Chinese.

          • PJ London

            Damn, they should never have legalised Pot, it addles the brain without disabling the keyboard.

      • hoyeru

        You are making zero sense. Nobody is lining up behind USA. Even its closest allies are dropping it. Talked to any Germans lately? They think USA is a joke. Russia is maneuvering around USA at ever turn. Putin is one smart guy who USA cannot touch him.
        China crumbling? It’s USA that’s crumbling. Ever been to a downtown of ANY USA city lately? Seen hundreds of thousands of homeless all over? Brazil, China, Russia are on the march, while USA is falling behind. USA’s middle class is dying and without a middle class nobody will be there to pay taxes and buy all the useless garbage being produced.
        Iran are trying to play nice, while still having their cake. They are
        still doing stuff in secret underground facilities nobody knows about.
        Iran is still making deals with the Chinese. Iran will survive.

        And if the Chinese are dumb enough to go to war over a few islands that have some mineral deposits then they DO deserve to be wiped out. The Chinese KNOW USA will back Japan in a war. If China’s run’s is over then Russia will be net then. Havent you noticed how the center of power has been circling the globe and is now in Asia? NO matter what USA does(short of a nuclear war that they are desperate enough to start) USA’s run is over.

        • Tonto

          You sound like a well-indoctrinated America hater to me. Open your eyes, fool. Brazil, China and Russia all have homeless and destitute populations vastly larger than anything EVER seen in the US. And the destitute numbers in these countries continue to grow faster than in the U.S. There is simply no comparison.

          The only shining light today among these three is Russia, which is only shining because the US has given Russia what it asked for a few decades ago, a chance to be on the list of those countries 100% behind the US. As a reward, Russia’s oil and gas industries literally have been given dominance over most of Europe.

          That was wholly an American gift. It’s not even a quid pro quo. It’s a straight up gift, because the Russians are indeed good and deserving friends. The American/Russian/Japanese alliance is completely indomitable worldwide. This alliance ensures the New American Century.

          All this was well-thought-out by the wire pullers as things developed decades ago. You just have not been clued-in as things been developed. But hey! What the hell have you got to know for?

          So, keep believing all the bullshit being slung at you at such great expense.

          BTW, the real revelation about NSA NOT GIVEN TO US BY Edward Snowden or Julian Assange is the vast army of disinformation specialists in the media and on the Internet who are waging a disinformation campaign that is most astonishing and unique in the history of the world. It truly is the Eight Wonder of the World, especially as one fathoms the extent to which the “alternative media” has been completely co-opted by a network of disinformation-spreading government agencies.

          Go read What Really Happened, critically. You’ll soon realize the extent to which information in this world today is mostly disinformation being fed to populations worldwide by the NSA and the CIA.

          • PJ London

            “revelation about NSA NOT GIVEN TO US BY Edward Snowden or Julian Assange”
            To what are you referring?
            Er, you are perhaps “covering your tracks”
            “I am not a NSA troll, I hate the NSA, really really honest I do”
            You make a lot of noise, but no sense.
            Please provide facts and information not childish rants if you wish to converse with the adults.

          • Ken

            The USA’s population is being destroyed with 3rd World immigration and the Mass Media/Hollyweird popularization of race mixing. A Nation is only as good as the BIOLOGY that inhabits it. As the biology of the USA turns into a 3 World cesspool so to will the USA follow suit. Biology is very real and the only thing of value on this planet. Blackbirds cannot create an Eagle’s nest, nor can non-Whites create a White civilization.

          • One American

            When white people can build a pyramid, then they will have acheived this epic society you speak of. The truth is that white society is built on the theft of far superior societys.
            Egypt, Islam and the Moors gave White society it’s entire foundation of learning.
            Why don’t we start with The University. Move to Arabic Numeral system. The concept of laws. Let’s not leave out religion as all whites were pagens.
            I could go on but tha’t enough. You whole belief system is one huge lie.
            I wish you well as you strive to walk the path of true understanding

      • PJ London

        Oh Wow, It must be really dark from where your head is situated.

        Could you please show how “He has seemingly forgotten Korea, Vietnam and the Los Angeles Rodney King riots” is relevant to the comment that you are responding to.

        “Because even the mention of Japan getting militarily involved, and three quarters of the Chinese and most of Southeast Asia will die of stark fright.” and you know this because…..

        “In this world, you do not get away with laughing at the U.S Secretary of the Treasury”

        China and Russia (Via the BRICS) have completely emasculated USA. The only power that you had was from Bretton Woods. That is now dead and the corpse is in the process of being buried.
        Some of you are going through the process, the more enlightened are accepting of the situation, fools are still in denial.
        “Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression and Acceptance.”
        Kubler Ross’ Five Stages of Grief for the dying process.

        The US is history, it is writhing around throwing bombs and toys, causing disruption and terror, but pretty soon both internally and externally it will be powerless.

        Unless it is willing to run out the “Nuclear Option” if it does, then it is damned and if it does not then it is doomed.

        The Israelis can play the “Samson” option, but the USA?

        “What then is, generally speaking, the truth of history? A fable agreed upon.” – Napoleon Bonaparte [69]

        Your little aphorism will not be remembered, However Santayana “… and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” will be misquoted forever.

        You should perhaps take note of Alexander Pope :

        “A little learning is a dangerous thing

        ;Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring

        :There shallow draughts intoxicate the brain,”

        You write and sound as though you are drunk and vain in your “little learning”

        You should study Jefferson, he was an exceedingly wise and industrious writer.

        “Peace is that brief glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading.” — Thomas Jefferson

  • I’ve been reading William Strauss and Neil Howe’s The Fourth
    Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous
    with Destiny (1997) that predicted a Fourth Turning (“a Crisis, a decisive
    era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels replacement of the old
    civic order with a new one”) would occur shortly after 2005–think 2008
    financial crisis. As a result of this event, political and economic trust would

    Within the next twenty years, they expected the States would
    “pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American
    Revolution [1773-1794], Civil War [1860-1865] and twin emergencies of the Great
    Depression and World War II [1929-1946]. The risk of catastrophe will be very
    high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up
    geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is war, it is likely
    to be of maximum risk and effort–in other words, a total war. Every Fourth
    Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and
    in mankind’s willingness to use it. In the Civil War, the two capital cities
    would surely have incinerated each other had the means been at hand. In World
    War II, America invented a new technology of annihilation, which the nation
    swiftly put to use. This time, America will enter a Fourth Turning with the
    mean to inflict unimaginable horrors and, perhaps, will confront adversaries
    who posses the same.”

    They present a fairly convincing argument that historic events
    occur in regular patterns based upon generational cycles. And, while history
    may not repeat itself, it certainly does rhyme. And rhymes with a consistent
    beat and tempo; the Fourth Turning crisis occurring about every 80-100 years,
    the length of a long human life. Looks like we’re about due.

    • Tonto

      I’ve read it. It’s a crappy amateur book published by the same people who run the main stream media. It’s disinformation, and meant to be an idea-anchor tied around the neck for morons who have no real knowledge of history or, how history gets written and published.

      Citing this work is the earmark of someone who lacks knowledge and, who doesn’t understand that most popular history is disinformation mean to corral others ideas about how things really work.

      • Thanks for that great feedback.

        • Tonto

          So, you can read then… Now all you need do, is read critically. Because everything that’s in print isn’t necessarily worth the paper it’s written on. Naomi Kline is another often quoted, but ignorant writer of a similar genre as Strauss & Howe. So is Ayn Rand, from a generation past. The publishing industry in the U.S. is completely corrupt. And the vast majority of its chosen and hyped authors have no more merit than Miley Cyrus, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Phish or Edward Snowden for that matter. These people are all colossal fakes pimped to the public like cheesecake and Budweiser beer.

          The Internet is a great place to get criticism, like what you just got, which fortunately one can brush off as coming from just some anonymous asshole. So, don’t let your (online) ego get up its gander and walk away pouting. Think about how you can do something important for yourself first, and others second, instead of parroting mindless garbage that comes from the popular and peddled main stream media entertainment industry.

          By and large the Internet is full of it. And reading comments should leave one shaking their head, because anyone can leave a comment. And the average posting-schmuck has nothing new or important to say. But everyone has succumbed to the the ubiquitous marketing hype that pollutes our much-much fairer real world.

          • PJ London

            Will the person who died and made Tonto God, please raise their hand.

          • If your objective is to persuade others to a more critical form of thinking, you need to be less pejorative in your critiques and steer them with convincing examples and arguments.

          • Tonto

            See? I knew you’d get the hang of it.

            What I like about you is there’s no whining about anything, Steve.

          • No point. I don’t think anybody really knows what’s going on out there…least of all those in charge. In the infamous words of the 1980s pop band, Men Without Hats, “I may not know what’s right, but I know this can’t be it!”

          • Tonto

            This is an astute observation about reality you have just quoted. We cannot know the absolute truth. But, we certainly can begin to guess what is absolutely not true.

            This results from the fact that reality is infinitely complex, something no scientist, and no philosopher can eliminate regardless the accuracy of the clever approximations inherent to all theory.


  • Robert Barsocchini

    Also, the US is currently trying to overthrow Syria. Iran is up next. That could also provoke world war, if Russia and China protest.

    Getting Iran again is a burning US elite desire.

    Like the shot of WW1, a similar event could, and is being planned by the US, to spark this.

    Dick Cheney and others have suggested staging false flags to spark a US or US-backed war against Iran.

    More info on the situation:

    • Tonto

      Russia’s only role in this is to goad the Chinese on, if the Chinese can be goaded, before the Chinese completely disintegrate in another Chinese war of internal strife.

      That seems to me to be the most likely scenario developing. We are going to see class warfare internally in China that is going to be absolutely astonishingly brutal.

  • Winston

    Suggested reading: “Peddler of Death” by Donald McCormick. The book is one of the few (besides some scanty unpublished more recent revelations) about the unlovely life of Basil Zaharoff (M. Sachar) detailing some of his murders,etc. One overlooked aspect of Zaharoff’s career was his prescient observation of the likelihood of WW1 being longer and costlier than everyone was expecting. It wasn’t his intimate knowledge of modern weapons alone, however, for this accurate projection, but being able to overule French generals during the conflict who wished to retake the critically strategic border town of Briey (and Thionville, etc.) along with the German occupied former French armaments factory (which continued producing artillery shells till war’s end for Germany) and nearby, Germany’s only source of Nickel. His thinnest lie (accompanied no doubt by fat wads of cash) was the factory was needed to remain intact to provide employment for French workers after the war, although he later brazenly gloated about his ‘being able to shorten the conflict’ and specifically mentioned Briey. The India-Pakistan-China area, though most heavily populated, may as well not exist in most Western pundits thoughts. All areas of conflict are potentially dangerous. Any one can escalate out of ‘control’. Under the guiding influence of unregistered foreign agent AIPAC corrupted politicians, among others, there is great cause to worry. Many Americans had to learn this the hard way in Iraq. Looking at UK MP’s investments in Vickers, etc., before World War One you’d think any sensible government would move immediately to remove this flagrant (and very dangerous) conflict of interest. Mr. Rivero’s site has noted some of the current sitting members of Congress appalling ‘investments’ in this area.

  • TheTruth

    Just like Ghost In The Shell predicted.

    2000–2015 World War III

    “World War III was a nuclear war,
    occurring sometime between 2000 and 2015 (in episode “DU – 33″ it is
    suggested that the war ended sometime around 2002). While very little is
    still revealed about the events that occurred to cause the war,
    evidence shows that the war started from a series of nuclear exchanges
    across Eurasia.

    Nuclear bombing of Tokyo: The seat of government was temporarily transferred to Niihama (Kobe) before permanent relocation to Fukuoka, Kyūshū. Central Tokyo was submerged under water.

    Nuclear bombing of Okinawa

    Nuclear bombing of Berlin, capital of Germany”

    Rise of the American Empire

    “After World War III ended, the American Empire had become an
    [openly] imperialist government, in an attempt to regain world power by
    conquering new areas in North and South America.
    Due to a battered economy and weak political position, the American
    Empire entered into a security pact with Japan. The pact reaffirms Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution in prohibiting Japan from both deploying its army overseas and possessing nuclear weapons.”

  • Lex Lex

    Most of the time I don’t share the same fears of Roubini . Unfortunately war has already broken out with an ongoing proxy war spilling out from Africa to the Middle East and beyond which ultimately maybe a conflagration between Iran and Saudi Arabia. I am not sure that the Chinese are more than painting their paper tiger red. It would be absurd for the US to actively involve it self as an ally of either party. Who would attack pearl harbor this time ? The Chinese? Not likely. They are minor creditors to the US and would lose a few trillion dollars and their best customer. The Chinese are not that stupid and China is not historically known for major wars to gain territory–it was Mongolians on horse back who did most of that. Japan is a lot like Great Britain, an island nation , with some protections thus.

  • Rehmat

    The coming World War wouldn’t be between the US and China. It will be an aftermath of Washington’s next “war for Israel” in the Middle East – begining with an attack on Syria or Iran which would engulf Iran’s neighbor Russia, China and Pakistan.

    In September 2013, Professor Jean Bricmont (University of Louvain in Belgium) authored an article, titled ‘The People Against the 800 Pound Gorilla’ claiming that Israel is pushing Washington to attack Syria.

  • Sam J

    Download these 54 beautifully designed business book cliff notes that will help you make millions in life..even billions..

  • Jasen T. Davis

    “Man, we got so greedy that we took all the money so now all the people who aren’t rich are totally poor. Oh well, let’s nuke ’em!”