2009 is Going To Be a Bumpy Ride

Here are my predictions for 2009. If these predictions sound too gloomy and you don’t buy them, bookmark this, and come back to it later in the year to see whether or not it was right.

After a short rally in the stock markets, lasting somewhere on the order of 1 to 4 months after Obama is inaugurated as President, people will realize that Obama’s stimulus plan isn’t going to work.

Specifically, it will become obvious that we’re in a Great Depression, and that nothing that Bushco or Obamaco did can get us out of it (it may take a while longer for people to realize that what both administrations did actually made the financial crisis much worse).

At that point, the stock market will crash like a waterfall. Mish predicts the crash will leave the S&P at 600 (he gives a range of 450-700). Robert McHugh thinks the crash will drive the S&P to 500 or lower (in McHugh’s worst-case scenario, the S&P could end up at 50).

At around the time of the crash, the bubble in long-term treasuries will burst. Retirees and other people who have socked away their money in treasuries will get hit hard.

The government itself will start massively buying its own long-term treasuries.

Obama will institute numerous “emergency measures” to “restore stability”. None of them will be pretty, and none of them will work . . . except to undermine our liberties still further.

Its going to be a bumpy ride.

Note: I am not an investment advisor and this should not be taken as investment advice.

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  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/08493566756042073269 Kenneth

    Your just a copy cat of other post on the web!

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/10891277931441055038 George Washington

    Kenneth, which posts do you believe I am copying?

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/13203350953959974791 Stop N Text

    So what should we do ?

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/13587679636849789016 Ever After

    Good post George! Kind of puts words to what I (and a LOT of people) have felt / known for quite awhile now: Obamaco can’t repair a system that’s so completely broken. Nothing will repair it until some of the most fundamental EVILS are erradicated — ie: The “Federal” Reserve and the private banking cartel. And even then there is about to be had a most severe period of pain. That “pain” will have the majority of the population going hungry and crying to Government to help. And it will try — once the riots get out of hand — martial law, complete loss of liberties — which will only lead to MORE riots and the complete implosion of America. Dark dark dark days ahead people. “Canned food, handguns, ammo and seeds!”

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/11268643686827813495 Anson

    The imminent collapse of the global economy has been predicted by many, including Gerald Celente, a reknown professional expert forecaster that even lamestream media takes seriously. Watch his interview on FOX: http://www.infowars.com/?p=5938Another renowned economist, Mikhail Khazin, predicts that the U.S. will soon face second “Great Depression”: http://www.prisonplanet.com/renowned-economist-mikhail-khazin-us-will-soon-face-second-great-depression.html#comment-81181I call it the “Greater Depression.” Don’t believe me? Then do as the author of this post said: “…bookmark this, and come back to it later in the year to see whether or not it was right.”

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/13156080225918567393 The Grey Tiger

    GOOD POST GWOf course others have said the same thing including my posts on http://thegreytiger.wordpress.com/We all pick and choose the data we look at and form our opinions from and I don’t think that makes us likee lews. My indicators that say you are right are the following.1. many more foreclosures and a fall in real estate prices by at least 20% lasting at least through 09.2. Crash of most of the commodity market by 40 to 60%3.Long wave economics.4.A whole world downturn not just the US5.Total crash of derivative market.6.Total crash of MBS market.7.Increasing unemployment8.Large scale bank failures9.Crash of business real estate.10. Huge business failures and downsizing. There’s more but how much do you need.GW is absolutely correct this is GDII no doubt about it.When you see large numbers of economists say we don’t know how we got here and have no idea how to get out of it you begin to see just how deep in the crapper we are.

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/05205497739897010166 Bruce D. Collins

    I too believe the stock market will crash but in the second half we will see really bad inflation when the liquidity begans to come ashore. Then, the price of commodities and food are going to spike. Bruce Collinswww.BruceDCollins.blogspot.com

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/05205497739897010166 Bruce D. Collins

    Good grief, I didn’t even spell begins right. I’m a product of California schools!Bruce

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/02289907417507456248 Robert

    I used to invest, but now I just speculate. The whims of these wannabe and witch-doctor economists and politicians drive individual equity values to a much higher degree than the actual performance of the actual firms represented by the equities.I want to bet on hyper-inflation, but can't seem to get a grip on how the S&P/DJ/EFA will perform in such a situation. I know that commodities will outperform all else, but I also want to play the market swings in production and other sectors.

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/13156080225918567393 The Grey Tiger

    It’s amazing is it not Bruce how you never see the misspelling till after you post it. Amazing.I agree that at some point inflation will come roaring back exactly when I don’t know. I watch M3 at Shadow Statistics and a whole bunch of commodities for a clue as to when..M3 which has been going down has just now turned up most commodities are sharply down. I have been wondering if just increasing the money supply can overcome the lack of demand on prices. We shall see.

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/10808513711410506159 m_astera

    I have pretty much always worked for a living. Never was much into gambling except a low-stakes card game among friends. Just never seemed like an honorable trade.

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/17268676589486921213 Eric Vaughan

    Interesting reading. Thanks. If I told you that if the family taking care of the goldfish ever had to leave in a hurry, that fish is done for, you’d pretty much take that as a given. Here’s my prediction. First came the economic collapse then came the life expectancy and population crash.

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/15783297871083174790 KM

    I read yesterday from a MidEast agency that Arab nations have voted in favor of a new regional currency. All voted in favor except Oman.

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/15694083230452345440 JF Ranger

    Everyone should watch the documentary Zeitgeist Addendum. We are witnessing the downfall of capitalism. Inflation, devaluation, depression and contraction are built in this system, especially when bankers control it. What we need is evolution. We don’t need to accept these failures passively. Watch the film.

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/11086622685927000217 Tomás Estrada-Palma

    You are right on Target George. Please realize that negative comments are probably from trolls working as shills for the new world order. Ignore them. They will look stupid soon enough.

  • http://openid.aol.com/xitrius Xitrius

    By eliminating the Federal Reserve you aren’t curing the disease, but rather treating the symptoms. In order to achieve true liberty we must work to abolish all involuntary government.

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/09726009011311258047 2bwise

    GW: what you call a “prediction” I call “obvious”.

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/10412578051235447451 Sethdominus

    2009 will be a doozy to say the leastnobody is truly prepared

  • http://www.blogger.com/profile/10412578051235447451 Sethdominus

    2009 will be a doozy to say the leastnobody is truly prepared

 

 

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