Until this year, the International Energy Agency mocked people who said that oil supplies might peak in the near future.
Now, the IEA has changed its outlook and predicting that oil supplies will peak “around 2020″.
Peak oil would have huge effects on economics and politics.
Note: I have been agnostic about peak oil. While the largest oil fields appear to be declining, there have been new massive new oil fields discovered. And my father-in-law tells me that people predicted peak oil decades ago, but were proven wrong.
It is also possible that there are unseen political forces pressuring the IEA. The IEA does not include any Arab countries, and is dominated by Western countries. It is possible that there are behind-the-scenes geopolitical pressures arguing for a declaration of peak oil.
However, the shift in the IEA’s position is so dramatic that I have to take it seriously, and am now tenatively convinced in the reality of peak oil within the next couple of decades.